Suriname’s government debt is expected to decline sharply in relation to the size of the economy in the coming years. According to international credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings, gross government debt could decrease from 104.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 33.8 percent in 2029. The expected improvement is mainly linked to the strong economic growth projected from 2028 due to offshore oil production.
The forecast is included in S&P’s report of November 9, 2026, in which the credit rating agency upgraded Suriname’s long-term creditworthiness from CCC+ to B-. According to S&P, the recovery in gold production, high gold prices and the expected development of the oil sector contribute to more favourable prospects for public finances.
Debt ratio could decline sharply in four years
S&P’s figures show a strong expected decline in gross government debt. For 2026, a debt ratio of 86.6 percent of GDP is projected. In 2027, this is expected to decline further to 77.3 percent, followed by 54.3 percent in 2028 and 33.8 percent in 2029.
Net government debt, which takes into account certain government financial assets, is also expected to decrease substantially, according to the credit rating agency. It stood at around 89.4 percent of GDP in 2025. For 2028, a net debt ratio of 46.7 percent is expected, which could decline further to 25 percent in 2029.
Oil production plays decisive role
The expected improvement in the debt position is closely linked to the economic growth that the offshore oil industry is expected to generate.
S&P expects the Surinamese economy to grow by 28.2 percent in 2028 and by 43.4 percent in 2029.
This strong growth will significantly increase the size of GDP, allowing the existing debt burden to decline as a percentage of the economy.
A decline in the debt ratio does not automatically mean that the total amount of outstanding government debt will be reduced to the same extent. A strong increase in economic output can also improve the ratio between debt and GDP.
Higher revenues should strengthen public finances
According to S&P, high gold prices and the recovery in gold production are already generating higher government revenues. From 2028, additional revenues from the oil industry are also expected. The credit rating agency foresees that the budget position will gradually improve as a result. For 2026, a budget deficit of 5.4 percent of GDP is still projected, and a deficit of 3.9 percent for 2027.
In 2028, S&P expects a budget surplus of 1.6 percent of GDP. According to the forecast, this surplus could rise to 3.5 percent in 2029.
Foreign currencies remain a financial risk
Despite the expected improvement, Suriname’s debt position remains vulnerable. S&P points out that around 84 percent of total government debt is denominated in foreign currencies. This means that exchange rate fluctuations can affect the debt burden when it is converted into Surinamese dollars. In addition, according to the credit rating agency, 97 percent of commercial government debt is held by non-residents.
S&P stresses that further strengthening of debt management remains necessary to enable the government to meet its payment obligations even during economically difficult periods. The organisation views the expected decline in the debt ratio as an important improvement in the financial outlook, but at the same time warns that responsible fiscal policy and better-functioning debt management remain necessary for sustainable financial stability.
