S&P raises Suriname’s credit rating, but warns of weak institutions

The rating upgrade was announced on Monday, November 9, 2026. Both the credit rating for long-term foreign-currency debt and that for debt in Surinamese dollars were raised from CCC+ to B-. The short-term rating was also adjusted, from C to B.

With the new assessment, S&P recognises that Suriname’s economic and financial outlook has improved. However, the rating remains within the speculative category, meaning that the country still faces considerable credit risks.

Higher gold revenues and oil investments strengthen economy

According to S&P, Suriname is currently benefiting from a recovery in gold production and persistently high gold prices on the international market. As a result, government revenues are rising and the need for additional financing is declining.

The development of the GranMorgu offshore oil project also plays a decisive role in the improved credit rating. According to S&P, investments in the oil industry are stimulating not only the energy sector, but also activities in port development, the real estate sector and infrastructure.

The credit rating agency expects the Surinamese economy to grow by an average of 4.1 percent per year in 2026 and 2027. With the expected start of oil production in mid-2028, economic growth could then accelerate significantly.

For 2028, S&P forecasts economic growth of 28.2 percent, followed by 43.4 percent in 2029. These exceptional growth figures depend largely on the development and scaling up of offshore oil production.

Weak institutions remain a major risk

Despite the favourable economic outlook, S&P strongly criticises Suriname’s institutional capacity. According to the credit rating agency, government institutions still lack sufficient administrative and technical capacity to effectively absorb economic fluctuations and future financial challenges.

S&P points out that previous economic policy choices have not generated sufficient financial buffers to withstand periods of economic downturn and falling commodity prices. According to the organisation, this contributed in part to the government’s payment problems and defaults in 2020.

Payment arrears that emerged after the debt restructuring in 2023 are also mentioned. Although these arrears have since been cleared, they demonstrate, according to S&P, that debt management requires further strengthening.

The credit rating agency also identifies shortcomings in coordination between the Bureau voor de Staatsschuld, the Ministry of Finance and the Centrale Bank van Suriname (CBvS).

These weaknesses explain why Suriname, despite its positive economic outlook, is not yet eligible for a substantially higher credit rating.

Budget rules not yet operational

Another point of concern is the absence of fully operational rules for budget discipline.

In 2024, Suriname amended legislation governing the Spaar- en Stabilisatiefonds and adopted a law on the management of public finances. This created legal frameworks for responsible financial policy.

According to S&P, however, the associated prudential budget rules have not yet entered into force. These include rules for managing government debt over the medium term and limiting annual growth in primary government expenditure.

According to the report, the government led by President Jennifer Geerlings-Simons intends to make these rules fully operational before oil production increases substantially.

S&P stresses that responsibly managing future oil revenues will become one of Suriname’s main challenges. Without sufficient budget discipline, there is a risk that the government will again fail to build adequate reserves during periods of high revenues for economically more difficult times.

Government debt could decline significantly

According to S&P, the improved economic outlook could also contribute to a sharp decline in government debt relative to the size of the economy.

According to figures from the credit rating agency, gross government debt stood at approximately 104.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025. It is expected to fall to 54.3 percent in 2028, followed by 33.8 percent in 2029.

A significant part of this improvement is linked to the expected strong increase in GDP due to oil production. A lower debt ratio therefore does not automatically mean that nominal government debt will decline to the same extent.

At the same time, the debt position remains vulnerable to exchange-rate fluctuations. According to S&P, approximately 84 percent of total government debt is denominated in foreign currency. A weakening of the Surinamese dollar could therefore increase the debt burden expressed in local currency.

Further rating upgrade dependent on financial policy

S&P has classified Suriname’s outlook as stable. This reflects the expectation that economic growth and high gold prices will contribute to stronger government revenues and an improvement in domestic and external liquidity positions over the next 12 to 18 months.

According to the organisation, a further upgrade in creditworthiness is possible if Suriname introduces policies that ensure future wealth is managed carefully. Sustained improvement in debt management could also contribute to this.

Conversely, the rating could be downgraded again if policy or administrative developments undermine Suriname’s ability to repay its debts on time.

S&P’s assessment therefore makes clear that the expected oil wealth in itself does not guarantee sustainable financial stability. In addition to economic growth, strengthening government institutions, responsible budget policy and reliable debt management will also be decisive for Suriname’s future creditworthiness.