IDB: AI could significantly boost regional economy, but jobs and wages at risk

Large-scale adoption of artificial intelligence could increase the economy of Latin America and the Caribbean by approximately 5.1 percent over a ten-year period.

According to new research by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), this is accompanied by a strong warning: if workers are insufficiently able to move into new occupations and growth sectors, wages could instead come under significant pressure. For Suriname, the rapid rise of AI therefore brings not only economic opportunities, but also questions about education, training and the future of jobs.

The IDB presented the new estimates during meetings in New York, where government representatives from Latin America and the Caribbean gathered with executives from the technology sector. Suriname was also represented. Representatives of, among others, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia and Anthropic also took part in the discussions.

According to the calculations, widespread adoption of artificial intelligence could make the combined gross domestic product of Latin America and the Caribbean over ten years 5.1 percent higher than without this broad application of AI. With only limited adoption, the economic gain would be considerably smaller, Reuters reported: approximately 0.3 percent.

The economic gain comes in part because companies can use AI to automate processes, make workers more productive and develop new products and services.

Workers must be able to transition

According to the IDB, the greatest risk lies in the labour market.

If workers affected by automation succeed in transitioning to sectors and occupations where demand for labour is growing, wages could rise by approximately 2.3 to 5.3 percent, according to the scenarios examined.

However, if that transition does not take place, or takes place insufficiently, the consequences could be much more severe. The IDB calculates that wages could fall by as much as 20.9 percent in such a scenario.

The development bank therefore stresses that the ultimate effects of AI are not determined by the technology itself alone. Education, retraining, digital infrastructure, investment and workers’ ability to learn new skills also play an important role.

Many companies use AI, but returns remain limited

Earlier IDB research shows that companies in the region are now experimenting with artificial intelligence on a large scale. Approximately 80 percent of companies examined in the relevant study were already using AI applications.

However, the economic results so far have been much more limited. Only 23 percent reported economic benefits, and just 6 percent saw a substantial positive impact.

According to the IDB, companies should therefore not use AI merely as isolated digital tools, but should genuinely adapt business processes and integrate the technology into their daily operations. Better digital infrastructure, qualified personnel and clear regulations are also necessary, according to the bank.

What does this mean for Suriname?

The regional figures do not mean that Suriname’s economy will automatically grow by an additional 5.1 percent as a result of artificial intelligence. The ultimate effects differ by country and depend, among other things, on the economic structure, availability of technology, workers’ level of education and investments in digital infrastructure.

For Suriname, the development could be particularly important in sectors where much administrative, analytical or routine work is carried out.

Banks and insurers can, for example, use AI for customer service, risk analysis and fraud detection. Government services can automate administrative processes, while media can already use AI for, among other things, transcription, translation and processing large amounts of information.

Call centres, administrative offices and other service companies can also automate an increasing number of tasks.

This does not necessarily mean that these jobs will disappear entirely. Roles can also change, with workers needing different skills to be able to work with AI systems.

Education takes on an important role

According to the IDB’s broader analysis, this is precisely where an important challenge lies for countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.

If workers can quickly acquire new skills and transition to productive sectors, both the economy and wages can benefit. If large groups of workers cannot make that transition, AI risks increasing existing inequalities in the labour market.

The question is therefore not only how many companies in Suriname will use artificial intelligence, but above all whether education and the labour market will prepare workers in time for the changes.

The IDB is now working on a regional AI Readiness Scorecard, which should enable countries to better assess their AI ecosystem, institutional capacity and bottlenecks. The programme was approved in June 2026 and is intended to support governments in developing better-substantiated AI policies.

According to IDB President Ilan Goldfajn, artificial intelligence offers the region an opportunity to address the long-standing weak productivity growth. However, according to the institution, the benefits will not arise automatically.

The full findings on the possible economic effects of AI are expected to be included in a new IDB flagship report due to be released in November.

For Suriname, the study makes one point clear: AI can create new economic opportunities, but how many of these are actually utilised will depend in part on investment in people, education, digital infrastructure and the way the labour market adapts.