S&P expects strong economic growth, but inflation in Suriname will remain high until 2029

Although price increases will gradually decline thereafter, the organisation still projects inflation of 7 percent for 2029. This creates a striking difference between the expected rapid growth of the economy and the development of the overall price level.

The forecasts are included in S&P’s report of November 9, 2026, in which Suriname’s creditworthiness was upgraded from CCC+ to B-, with stable outlooks.

The credit rating agency expects the development of the offshore oil industry from 2028 to lead to a sharp acceleration in economic growth.

Growth of 28.2 percent is forecast for 2028, followed by 43.4 percent in 2029.

At the same time, S&P expects inflation to decline during this period, but not to disappear completely.

Inflation gradually declines

According to S&P’s economic estimates, inflation stood at around 9.2 percent in 2025.

For 2026, an increase to 10 percent is expected. The credit rating agency then forecasts a gradual decline in inflation to 8 percent in 2027, 7.5 percent in 2028 and 7 percent in 2029.

This development means that prices are expected to continue rising in the coming years, albeit at a slower pace.

Declining inflation does not mean that goods and services automatically become cheaper. It means that the overall price level rises less quickly than before.

For the purchasing power of households, therefore, not only inflation trends are important, but also the extent to which salaries and other incomes increase.

S&P’s report contains no separate forecast for real wage developments or the purchasing power of Surinamese households.

Oil production drives exceptional growth forecast

According to S&P, the strong economic growth figures are mainly linked to the development of the offshore oil project GranMorgu.

The expected start of oil production in mid-2028 is expected to lead to a substantial expansion of economic activity and exports.

S&P expects gross domestic product per capita to rise from around USD 7,271 in 2025 to USD 20,300 in 2029 as a result.

This increase reflects the expected rise in economic output per capita. However, the amount should not be equated with the average salary or citizens’ disposable income.

The credit rating agency does not state in the report how future income from the oil industry will be distributed among different population groups.

Central Bank must continue to safeguard stability

In its assessment, S&P also points to the importance of credible monetary policy.

According to the credit rating agency, reforms at the Centrale Bank van Suriname under the previous government contributed to macroeconomic stabilisation.

S&P expects the Centrale Bank to continue pursuing a floating exchange rate. At the same time, the organisation states that experience with the current monetary policy framework remains limited.

The credit rating agency emphasises that it will take time to further strengthen the credibility, operational independence and effectiveness of monetary policy.

Economic growth no guarantee of improved purchasing power

S&P’s projections show that Suriname may experience a period of exceptional economic expansion in the coming years.

However, the projected inflation figures make clear that price increases will remain a factor that citizens and businesses must take into account.

Whether economic growth will actually lead to an improvement in purchasing power also depends on developments in wages, other incomes and consumer prices.

In the report, S&P confines itself to the expected macroeconomic developments and provides no concrete estimate of improved purchasing power for Surinamese households.

Source: S&P Global Ratings, November 9, 2026, pages 2 to 5.